Looking ahead, the market outlook for the 2025 has been revised upwards, with momentum building from upcoming flagship launches and carrier-led programs, though broader economic and structural challenges continue to temper growth.

Apple Leads, Samsung Slows, and Google Gains Ground

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Apple retained its market leadership during H1 2025, though iPhone 16 series momentum slowed down after Q4 2024 holiday/promotional season. But iPhone 16e, launched in February 2025, reignited some excitement for the Apple brand fueling 3.7% YoY growth in H1 2025. Notably, this was Apple’s first Q1 launch since the iPhone SE (3rd gen) in March 2022, allowing the company to tap into pent-up demand from users waiting for a new entry-level model from Apple.

Samsung, after gaining ground in H1 2024, experienced a 3.3% YoY decline as the S25 series underperformed compared to its predecessor. The May 2025 launch of the S25 Edge provided Samsung with modest traction, but its ultra-thin design and premium pricing have yet to resonate widely with Canadian consumers.

Meanwhile, Google solidified its position in Canada, growing 5.7% YoY in H1 2025, supported by an improved product line-up, robust retail marketing, and strong carrier partnerships.

Motorola also performed well, driven by competitively priced devices and growth from a smaller installed base.

In H1 2025, Growth Continues in CA$800+ and Budget-friendly Segments

CA$800+ price range dominated Canada’s smartphone market in H1 2025, capturing 88.4% of sales, while budget models (CA$250–399) held 5.2% market share, with all other tiers below 3%. Despite the sharp contrast, these two segments remain the only two tiers with consistent growth from H1 2023 to H1 2025.

Canada Smartphone Sell Out Units by CA$ MSRP Price Bracket, H1 2023 - H1 2025

(in million)

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CA$800+ Segment

Premium devices continue to gain traction and now make up 88.4% of the market. Apple led the charge with the launch of the iPhone 16e, driving robust sales despite broader market headwinds. Samsung also benefited from launch of the S25 Edge and strategic price adjustments on the S24 FE (S23 FE was launched CA$649.99 onwards and S24 FE was launched CA$879.99 onwards) Google further elevated its share in this tier with the introduction of two additional premium devices in its Pixel 9 family, Pixel 9 Pro XL and and Pixel 9 Pro Fold.

CA$600–$799 Segment

This mid-tier segment struggled as brands altered their pricing strategy. Apple exited this price band entirely, positioning all iPhone 16e above CA$800. Samsung’s share also declined as the S24 FE entered at CA$800+ price range with S23 FE left in this category. Google was the exception, posting gains due to the reclassification of the 8a into this range and the extended availability of the 9a, which enjoyed an extra month on shelves compared to last year’s 8a.

CA$400–$599 Segment

This segment is primarily driven by Samsung and Motorola, fueled by recent launches such as Samsung’s Galaxy A36 and Motorola’s Moto G Stylus 2025 and Moto G Power 2025. Motorola notably gained share as the Moto G Power 2025 shifted up from the CA$250–300 range, boosting its position in this category

CA$250–$399 Segment

The budget market is growing, driven by strong growth in the $250–$399 range. Samsung capitalized on this with a compelling line-up of affordable devices, such as A16, intensifying competition for Motorola.

CA$0–$249 Segment

The ultra-budget segment is largely led by smaller players like TCL and ZTE. Momentum here is waning as Samsung and Motorola’s higher-value budget devices capture more attention from cost-conscious buyers.

Canada’s 2025 Smartphone Market Decline Eases to 1.5% YoY, Driven by Robust Product Offerings by OEMs

Counterpoint Research has revised its 2025 outlook for Canada’s smartphone market, softening the projected YoY decline from -2.5% to -1.5% as several short-term tailwinds gain momentum. Apple’s iPhone 16e, with its price point and features, has reinvigorated demand, while Samsung’s S25 Edge, though not a blockbuster, has kept the brand in focus. Looking ahead, the market is buzzing as Samsung’s Flip 7 and Fold 7, along with Google’s Pixel 10 series, have already launched, generating strong excitement—further amplified by anticipation for the much-rumoured iPhone 17 Air, all expected to drive a surge in upgrades. Major carriers like Rogers and TELUS are further driving premium adoption through aggressive financing offers, including TELUS’s 5G+ 5-year Complete Plan and Rogers’ 5G Infinite Ultimate. These programs provide deeper discounts on premium devices and plans, encouraging consumers to upgrade more frequently.

However, these improvements are tempered by persistent headwinds that could weigh on longer-term growth. Canada’s scaled-back immigration targets are set to slow population growth, limiting the pool of potential buyers. Broader economic pressures, including a high cost of living and weak wage growth, and tariff-driven price increases continue to suppress discretionary spending, posing a significant drag on the market.

Conclusion

In short, 2025 is shaping up as a year of resilience amid volatility—with strong product cycles providing near-term relief, but structural challenges remain and recovery beyond this year will depend on a more favorable economic and demographic backdrop.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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